Orsha 1–9 Shakhtyor Petrikov: Result & Stats

Orsha

FT

1 – 9

HT: 0 – 4

Shakhtyor Petrikov

M. Kalinchenko 48'

E. Karpitskiy 89', 88', 19'

D. Kovalevich 87', 72'

I. Zenkov 81' (pen)

M. Kovalevich 32'

V. Ganich 26'

V. Kurlovich 23'

4/23/2022

1. Division · Round 3Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Orsha34%

×Draw24%

Shakhtyor Petrikov43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrshaExpected goals in this matchShakhtyor Petrikov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.65

Orsha

1.44

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.65

Shakhtyor Petrikov creates 15% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 62 away

1.19

creates per match

1.53

1.77

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Orsha

1.19

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.53

allows per match

Orsha

1.77

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orsha+0.00on par

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsha ↓

Shakhtyor Petrikov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Orsha or draw

57%

Orsha or Shakhtyor Petrikov

76%

Draw or Shakhtyor Petrikov

66%

Winning margin

Orsha wins by 2+

15%

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Orsha 1+ goals

76%

Orsha 2+ goals

42%

Orsha 3+ goals

18%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals

81%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals

49%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Orsha (draw refunded)

44%

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsha at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.77 · 125 matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsha attack 1.19 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.53 + Orsha defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Orsha scores more

34%

level

24%

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more

43%

Shakhtyor Petrikov at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shakhtyor Petrikov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

23'

26'

32'

43'

48'

51'

51'

56'

D. Kutsepalov← V. Kurlovich

64'

D. Kovalevich

66'

D. Kovalevich← M. Kovalevich

67'

D. Dubrov← M. Ermakovich

72'

D. Kovalevich

74'

V. Syrisko← S. Mukhammadsharifi

76'

E. Kudinov← V. Ganich

80'

D. Lutik

80'

D. Lutik

81'

I. ZenkovPenalty

82'

A. Bruy

86'

N. Kitaev← M. Kalinchenko

86'

K. Getmanchuk← I. Yurin

87'

88'

89'

90'

Orsha

Shakhtyor

Shcherbac

Yankovski

Makarenko

⚽

▼

Kurlovich

▼

Mukhammad

Litskevic

⚽

▼

Kovalevic

▼

Yurin

⚽

Zenkov

⚽

▼

⚽3

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: I. Chumachenko

67'▲D. Dubrov←▼M. Ermakovich

86'▲N. Kitaev←▼M. Kalinchenko

Orsha substitutes

DubrovKitaevKhinchagovVolchenkoGolomakoShavlokhovKabachevskiy

Manager: S. Suvorov

56'▲D. Kutsepalov←▼V. Kurlovich

66'▲D. Kovalevich←▼M. Kovalevich

74'▲V. Syrisko←▼S. Mukhammadsharifi

76'▲E. Kudinov←▼V. Ganich

86'▲K. Getmanchuk←▼I. Yurin

Shakhtyor Petrikov substitutes

KutsepalovKovalevichSyriskoKudinovGetmanchukLapunDostanko