Orlando Pride W 1–3 NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Orlando Pride W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

7/23/2023

NWSL Women - Challenge Cup · Group Stage - 3Exploria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Orlando Pride W28%

×Draw30%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando Pride WExpected goals in this matchNJ/NY Gotham FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.19

Orlando Pride W

0.91

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.19

NJ/NY Gotham FC W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

0.63

creates per match

1.00

1.38

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Orlando Pride W

0.63

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.00

allows per match

Orlando Pride W

1.38

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlando Pride W+0.00on par

NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pride W ↓

NJ/NY Gotham FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Orlando Pride W or draw

58%

Orlando Pride W or NJ/NY Gotham FC W

70%

Draw or NJ/NY Gotham FC W

72%

Winning margin

Orlando Pride W wins by 2+

10%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Orlando Pride W 1+ goals

60%

Orlando Pride W 2+ goals

23%

Orlando Pride W 3+ goals

6%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals

70%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals

33%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pride W (draw refunded)

40%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pride W at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pride W attack 0.63 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.91

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.00 + Orlando Pride W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Orlando Pride W scores more

28%

level

30%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more

42%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff