Orlando Pirates 3–2 Supersport United

Orlando Pirates

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Supersport United

3/16/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 18Orlando Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Orlando Pirates49%

×Draw28%

Supersport United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando PiratesExpected goals in this matchSupersport United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.83

Orlando Pirates

1.34

Supersport United

0.83

Orlando Pirates creates 61% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 104 away

1.56

creates per match

0.97

0.70

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Orlando Pirates

1.56

Supersport United

0.97

allows per match

Orlando Pirates

0.70

Supersport United

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Supersport United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pirates ↓

Supersport United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Orlando Pirates or draw

77%

Orlando Pirates or Supersport United

72%

Draw or Supersport United

51%

Winning margin

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+

23%

Supersport United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals

74%

Orlando Pirates 2+ goals

39%

Orlando Pirates 3+ goals

15%

Supersport United 1+ goals

56%

Supersport United 2+ goals

20%

Supersport United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)

68%

Supersport United (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pirates at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.70 · 119 matches

Supersport United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.13 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pirates attack 1.56 + Supersport United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Supersport United attack 0.97 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Orlando Pirates scores more

49%

level

28%

Supersport United scores more

23%

Orlando Pirates at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff