Orlando Pirates 1–0 Sekhukhune United

Orlando Pirates

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sekhukhune United

11/7/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 8Orlando Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Orlando Pirates48%

×Draw29%

Sekhukhune United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando PiratesExpected goals in this matchSekhukhune United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.80

Orlando Pirates

1.28

Sekhukhune United

0.80

Orlando Pirates creates 60% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 75 away

1.56

creates per match

0.91

0.70

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Orlando Pirates

1.56

Sekhukhune United

0.91

allows per match

Orlando Pirates

0.70

Sekhukhune United

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Sekhukhune United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pirates ↓

Sekhukhune United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Orlando Pirates or draw

77%

Orlando Pirates or Sekhukhune United

71%

Draw or Sekhukhune United

52%

Winning margin

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+

22%

Sekhukhune United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals

72%

Orlando Pirates 2+ goals

37%

Orlando Pirates 3+ goals

14%

Sekhukhune United 1+ goals

55%

Sekhukhune United 2+ goals

19%

Sekhukhune United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)

67%

Sekhukhune United (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pirates at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.70 · 119 matches

Sekhukhune United away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pirates attack 1.56 + Sekhukhune United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sekhukhune United attack 0.91 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Orlando Pirates scores more

48%

level

29%

Sekhukhune United scores more

23%

Orlando Pirates at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff