Ventforet Kofu 0–1 Nagoya Grampus: Result & Stats

Ventforet Kofu

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nagoya Grampus

Y. Honda 90+4'

3/16/2013

J1 League · Round 3Yamanashi Chuo Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ventforet Kofu33%

×Draw27%

Nagoya Grampus40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ventforet KofuExpected goals in this matchNagoya Grampus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.29

Ventforet Kofu

1.14

Nagoya Grampus

1.29

Nagoya Grampus creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 149 away

0.86

creates per match

1.16

1.43

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu

0.86

Nagoya Grampus

1.16

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.43

Nagoya Grampus

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

Nagoya Grampus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw

60%

Ventforet Kofu or Nagoya Grampus

73%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

67%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+

13%

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals

68%

Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals

32%

Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals

11%

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

72%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

37%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)

45%

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.41 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 0.86 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.14

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.16 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more

33%

level

27%

Nagoya Grampus scores more

40%

Nagoya Grampus at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

K. Yano← N. Jakimovski

58'

D. Córdoba← J. Fujimoto

59'

K. Hosaka← M. Kaneko

64'

R. Isomura← Daniel

76'

K. Ishihara← N. Hanyu

90'

A. Kawamoto← Hugo Guimaraes

90+4'

Y. Honda

Ventforet

Nagoya

1

4

32

6

22

▼

Daniel

15

⚽

Honda

8

▼

Fujimoto

10

Ogawa

28

Taguchi

9

▼

11

1

19

16

2

41

6

22

▼

Hanyu

10

Izawa

18

Kashiwa

20

▼

Kaneko

11

▼

Guimaraes

59'▲K. Hosaka←▼M. Kaneko

76'▲K. Ishihara←▼N. Hanyu

90'▲A. Kawamoto←▼Hugo Guimaraes

Ventforet Kofu substitutes

30Hosaka7Ishihara15Kawamoto5Marques21Kawata24Horigome25Hiramoto

58'▲K. Yano←▼N. Jakimovski

58'▲D. Córdoba←▼J. Fujimoto

64'▲R. Isomura←▼Daniel

Nagoya Grampus substitutes

19Yano20Córdoba13Isomura5Masukawa7Nakamura27Tanabe50Takagi