Ventforet Kofu 2–0 Nagoya Grampus: Result & Stats

Ventforet Kofu

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nagoya Grampus

4/19/2014

J1 League · Round 8Yamanashi Chuo Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ventforet Kofu38%

×Draw27%

Nagoya Grampus34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ventforet KofuExpected goals in this matchNagoya Grampus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.17

Ventforet Kofu

1.26

Nagoya Grampus

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 153 away

1.10

creates per match

1.15

1.20

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.10

Nagoya Grampus

1.15

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.20

Nagoya Grampus

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

Nagoya Grampus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw

66%

Ventforet Kofu or Nagoya Grampus

73%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

62%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+

17%

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals

72%

Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals

36%

Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals

13%

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

69%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

33%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)

53%

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.10 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.26

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.15 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more

38%

level

27%

Nagoya Grampus scores more

34%

Ventforet Kofu at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff