FC OSS 0–3 VVV Venlo: Result & Stats

FC OSS

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

VVV Venlo

V. van Crooij 86', 75'

J. Sleegers 24'

1/27/2017

Eerste Divisie · Round 22Frans Heesen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

FC OSS39%

×Draw23%

VVV Venlo39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC OSSExpected goals in this matchVVV Venlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

FC OSS

1.71

VVV Venlo

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.54

creates per match

1.72

1.71

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

FC OSS

1.54

VVV Venlo

1.72

allows per match

FC OSS

1.71

VVV Venlo

1.87

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

FC OSS+0.17scores more

VVV Venlo-0.52scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC OSS ↓

VVV Venlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

FC OSS or draw

61%

FC OSS or VVV Venlo

77%

Draw or VVV Venlo

61%

Winning margin

FC OSS wins by 2+

20%

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FC OSS 1+ goals

82%

FC OSS 2+ goals

51%

FC OSS 3+ goals

24%

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

82%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

51%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

FC OSS (draw refunded)

50%

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC OSS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.87 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC OSS attack 1.54 + VVV Venlo defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.71

VVV Venlo attack 1.72 + FC OSS defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC OSS scores more

39%

level

23%

VVV Venlo scores more

39%

FC OSS at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC OSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

J. Sleegers

59'

I. Bakx← J. van den Ouweland

64'

M. Rutten← D. Post

67'

V. van Crooij← L. Resida

75'

V. van Crooij

86'

V. van Crooij

90+1'

T. Receveur← C. Leemans