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Oriente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ — Primera División 2026

Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
3/13/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Oriente Petrolero54%
×Draw23%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriente Petrolero
1.81
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.08

Oriente Petrolero creates 68% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 40 away

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.73
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.13

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.04
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.90

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par
Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

Gualberto Villarroel SJ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw
77%
Oriente Petrolero or Gualberto Villarroel SJ
77%
Draw or Gualberto Villarroel SJ
46%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+
31%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals
84%
Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals
54%
Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals
27%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals
66%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals
29%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)
71%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.04 · 131 matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.73 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.81

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 1.13 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more
54%
level
23%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more
23%

Oriente Petrolero at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Oriente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Oriente Petrolero 1–0 Gualberto Villarroel SJ

Oriente Petrolero beat Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1-0 in Primera División on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.