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Orgryte IS vs Djurgardens IF — Allsvenskan 2018

Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
Preview
17:00
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
7/20/2026AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 13Gamla Ullevi
38%
Orgryte IS
model favours
38%24%38%

80% of Orgryte IS’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Orgryte IS38%
×Draw24%
Djurgardens IF38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orgryte IS
1.54
Djurgardens IF
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 124 away

creates per match

Orgryte IS
2.00
Djurgardens IF
1.40

allows per match

Orgryte IS
1.71
Djurgardens IF
1.07

finishing

Orgryte IS+0.00on par
Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgryte IS ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Orgryte IS or draw
62%
Orgryte IS or Djurgardens IF
76%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
62%

Winning margin

Orgryte IS wins by 2+
18%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Orgryte IS 1+ goals
79%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
45%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
20%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
79%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
46%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
50%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgryte IS at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgryte IS attack 2.00 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Djurgardens IF attack 1.40 + Orgryte IS defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Orgryte IS scores more
38%
level
24%
Djurgardens IF scores more
38%

Orgryte IS at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Orgryte IS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Orgryte IS score first in only 30% of matches
  • Orgryte IS sit 15, Djurgardens IF 4 in the table
  • Orgryte IS and Djurgardens IF have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
IS
WLLDL
IF
WWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Orgryte IS vs Djurgardens IF — Match Preview

Orgryte IS face Djurgardens IF on July 20, 2026 in this Allsvenskan fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Orgryte IS host Djurgardens IF at Gamla Ullevi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.