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Orense SC vs Macara — Liga Pro 2026

Orense SC
Orense SC
Preview
20:00
Macara
Macara
8/30/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 27Estadio 9 de Mayo
Big match
43%
Orense SC
model favours
43%27%30%

Macara have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Orense SC43%
×Draw27%
Macara30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orense SC
1.33
Macara
1.06

Orense SC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 117 away

creates per match

Orense SC
1.32
Macara
1.11

allows per match

Orense SC
1.02
Macara
1.33

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par
Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw
70%
Orense SC or Macara
73%
Draw or Macara
57%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+
20%
Macara wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals
74%
Orense SC 2+ goals
38%
Orense SC 3+ goals
15%
Macara 1+ goals
65%
Macara 2+ goals
29%
Macara 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)
59%
Macara (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 105 matches

Macara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.32 + Macara defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Macara attack 1.11 + Orense SC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Orense SC scores more
43%
level
27%
Macara scores more
30%

Orense SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Macara are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Macara score first in only 24% of matches
  • 71% of Macara’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Orense SC sit 16, Macara 3 in the table
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals
  • Both teams score in only 29% of Macara’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Orense SC
Balanced
Macara
Defensively solid
49%Possession49%
79%Pass accuracy75%
10.2ShotsBiggest gap12.7
1.21xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Orense SCMacara

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Orense SC
2
Draws
4
Macara
Avg goals: 1.4BTTS: 30%
2–10–11–00–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
SC
LDLLL
Macara
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Orense SC vs Macara — Match Preview

Orense SC face Macara on August 30, 2026 in this Liga Pro fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Orense SC host Macara at Estadio 9 de Mayo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.