Orense SC 1–0 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Orense SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

LDU de Quito

A. Herrera 27'

4/19/2024

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 9Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Orense SC37%

×Draw27%

LDU de Quito36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orense SCExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.20

Orense SC

1.23

LDU de Quito

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 136 away

1.32

creates per match

1.37

1.02

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Orense SC

1.32

LDU de Quito

1.37

allows per match

Orense SC

1.02

LDU de Quito

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw

64%

Orense SC or LDU de Quito

73%

Draw or LDU de Quito

63%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+

16%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals

71%

Orense SC 2+ goals

35%

Orense SC 3+ goals

13%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

70%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

34%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)

51%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 105 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.32 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Orense SC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Orense SC scores more

37%

level

27%

LDU de Quito scores more

36%

Orense SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Herrera

Orense SC · F

7.9

Match Events

22'

Richard Mina

22'

Lisandro Alzugaray

27'

A. Herrera

32'

F. Rodríguez← Richard Mina

44'

Pedro Velasco

45+3'

Marlon Quiñónez

46'

A. Arce← L. Estupiñán

58'

Ricardo Adé

60'

Gabriel Achilier

68'

D. Coronel← R. Burbano

77'

J. Monaga← B. Viñán

81'

J. Julio← J. Espinoza

82'

M. Parrales← L. Alzugaray

88'

J. Andrade← M. Eggel

88'

R. Calderón← S. Kubiszyn

88'

B. Ramírez← L. Quiñónez

90+2'

José Andrade

90+1'

Jhojan Julio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrenseLDU

Overview

34%Possession66%

10Total Shots7

6Corners5

11Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots7

6On Target2

3Off Target2

1Blocked3

6Inside Box6

4Outside Box1

Passing

34%Possession66%

212Total Passes400

135Accurate Passes316

64%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls9

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1