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Orense SC vs LDU de Quito — Liga Pro 2026

Orense SC
Orense SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
E. Montaño 65'
J. Julio 57'
11/21/2021Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 14Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Orense SC37%
×Draw27%
LDU de Quito36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orense SC
1.23
LDU de Quito
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 136 away

creates per match

Orense SC
1.32
LDU de Quito
1.37

allows per match

Orense SC
1.02
LDU de Quito
1.15

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw
64%
Orense SC or LDU de Quito
73%
Draw or LDU de Quito
63%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+
16%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals
71%
Orense SC 2+ goals
35%
Orense SC 3+ goals
13%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
70%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
34%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)
51%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 105 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.32 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Orense SC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Orense SC scores more
37%
level
27%
LDU de Quito scores more
36%

Orense SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
Luis Caicedo
36'
Franklin Guerra
57'
J. Julio↳ D. Reasco
65'
W. Godoy← N. Czornomaz
65'
H. Matamoros← E. Caicedo
65'
E. Montaño↳ A. Assis
68'
A. Muñoz← N. Angulo
75'
Jonny Uchuari
76'
Sebastián Assis
82'
J. Kaprof← D. Reasco
90+1'
Oscar Esteban Quinonez Mendoza
90+3'
S. Ortiz← J. Uchuari
90+2'
J. Charcopa← B. Arce

Possession

53%Orense

Shots

5Orense

Statistics

OrenseLDU
Overview
53%Possession47%
5Total Shots2
7Corners4
15Fouls20
Shots
5Total Shots2
3On Target2
2Off Target0
Passing
53%Possession47%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls20
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Liga Pro: Orense SC 1–1 LDU de Quito

Orense SC and LDU de Quito drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on November 21, 2021.

Goals: J. Julio (57'), E. Montaño (65').

Orense SC controlled possession (53%) and registered 5 shots to 2.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo in Machala.