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Orenburg vs Rubin — Premier League 2018

Orenburg
Orenburg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rubin
Rubin
A. Kulishev 89' (pen)
Ricardo Alves 49'
E. Bashkirov 53'
9/15/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Orenburg43%
×Draw27%
Rubin30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg
1.39
Rubin
1.11

Orenburg creates 25% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 105 away

creates per match

Orenburg
1.39
Rubin
1.02

allows per match

Orenburg
1.20
Rubin
1.39

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw
70%
Orenburg or Rubin
73%
Draw or Rubin
57%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+
20%
Rubin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals
75%
Orenburg 2+ goals
40%
Orenburg 3+ goals
16%
Rubin 1+ goals
67%
Rubin 2+ goals
30%
Rubin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)
59%
Rubin (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.39 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.39 + Rubin defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.39

Rubin attack 1.02 + Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Orenburg scores more
43%
level
27%
Rubin scores more
30%

Orenburg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Ricardo AlvesOrenburgOrenburg · M
8.7

Match Events

13'
Žiga Škoflek
49'
Ricardo Alves
53'
E. Bashkirov↳ O. Danchenko
54'
Evgeny Bashkirov
59'
Danil Stepanov
66'
J. Fameyeh← Ž. Škoflek
73'
V. Kjartansson← E. Markov
77'
Timur Ayupov
80'
K. Kvaratskhelia← E. Bashkirov
83'
A. Galadzhan← Ricardo Alves
87'
A. Kulishev← Đ. Despotović
88'
Filip Uremović
89'
A. KulishevPenalty
90'
Konstantin Pliev

Possession

35%Orenburg

Shots

18Orenburg

Pass accuracy

47%Orenburg

Statistics

OrenburgRubin
Overview
35%Possession65%
18Total Shots14
3Corners5
11Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots14
5On Target3
10Off Target8
3Blocked3
14Inside Box7
4Outside Box7
Passing
35%Possession65%
295Total Passes555
214Accurate Passes459
73%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls12
2Yellow Cards4
3Offsides0

Premier League: Orenburg 2–1 Rubin

Orenburg beat Rubin 2-1 in Premier League on September 15, 2019.

Goals: Ricardo Alves (49'), E. Bashkirov (53'), A. Kulishev (89' pen).

Rubin controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.