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Orenburg U20 vs Ural U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Orenburg U20
Orenburg U20
PST
00:00
Ural U20
Ural U20
4/11/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Orenburg U2040%
×Draw25%
Ural U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg U20
1.53
Ural U20
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 99 away

creates per match

Orenburg U20
1.00
Ural U20
1.01

allows per match

Orenburg U20
1.82
Ural U20
2.06

finishing

Orenburg U20+0.00on par
Ural U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg U20 ↓

Ural U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Orenburg U20 or draw
65%
Orenburg U20 or Ural U20
75%
Draw or Ural U20
60%

Winning margin

Orenburg U20 wins by 2+
20%
Ural U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Orenburg U20 1+ goals
78%
Orenburg U20 2+ goals
45%
Orenburg U20 3+ goals
20%
Ural U20 1+ goals
76%
Ural U20 2+ goals
41%
Ural U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Orenburg U20 (draw refunded)
53%
Ural U20 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Ural U20 away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.06 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg U20 attack 1.00 + Ural U20 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.53

Ural U20 attack 1.01 + Orenburg U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Orenburg U20 scores more
40%
level
25%
Ural U20 scores more
35%

Orenburg U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Orenburg U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Orenburg U20 host Ural U20

April 11, 2020: Orenburg U20 take on Ural U20 in Youth Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.