Orebro SK 0–1 Trelleborg: Result & Stats

Orebro SK

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Trelleborg

2/20/2021

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Orebro SK30%

×Draw22%

Trelleborg48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orebro SKExpected goals in this matchTrelleborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.93

Orebro SK

1.47

Trelleborg

1.93

Trelleborg creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

1.50

creates per match

1.61

2.25

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Orebro SK

1.50

Trelleborg

1.61

allows per match

Orebro SK

2.25

Trelleborg

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Trelleborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw

52%

Orebro SK or Trelleborg

78%

Draw or Trelleborg

70%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+

13%

Trelleborg wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals

77%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

43%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

18%

Trelleborg 1+ goals

85%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

57%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

38%

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.50 + Trelleborg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Trelleborg attack 1.61 + Orebro SK defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Orebro SK scores more

30%

level

22%

Trelleborg scores more

48%

Trelleborg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff