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Orebro SK vs Oddevold — Superettan 2026

Orebro SK
Orebro SK
Preview
17:00
Oddevold
Oddevold
7/27/2026SuperettanSuperettan · Round 16Behrn Arena
Big match
44%
Orebro SK
model favours
44%26%30%

Orebro SK score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Orebro SK44%
×Draw26%
Oddevold30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orebro SK
1.50
Oddevold
1.19

Orebro SK creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

Orebro SK
1.64
Oddevold
0.98

allows per match

Orebro SK
1.39
Oddevold
1.35

finishing

Orebro SK-0.26scores less
Oddevold+0.52scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Oddevold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw
70%
Orebro SK or Oddevold
74%
Draw or Oddevold
56%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+
22%
Oddevold wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals
78%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
44%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
19%
Oddevold 1+ goals
70%
Oddevold 2+ goals
33%
Oddevold 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)
60%
Oddevold (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.39 · 13 matches

Oddevold away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.35 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.64 + Oddevold defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Oddevold attack 0.98 + Orebro SK defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Orebro SK scores more
44%
level
26%
Oddevold scores more
30%

Orebro SK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 77% of Orebro SK’s matches
  • Orebro SK fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Orebro SK
Balanced
Oddevold
Direct / counter-attacking
50%Possession44%
82%Pass accuracy78%
11.0Shots10.3
1.51xGBiggest gap1.27
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Orebro SKOddevold

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Orebro SK
3
Draws
2
Oddevold
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–40–01–20–02–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
SK
LWLDD
Oddevold
LDDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Orebro SK host Oddevold

July 27, 2026: Orebro SK take on Oddevold in Superettan. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Orebro SK host Oddevold at Behrn Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.