Ordino 1–3 UE Sant Julia: Result & Stats

Ordino

FT

1 – 3

UE Sant Julia

10/27/2019

1a Divisió · Round 6Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ordino35%

×Draw24%

UE Sant Julia41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrdinoExpected goals in this matchUE Sant Julia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.58

Ordino

1.44

UE Sant Julia

1.58

UE Sant Julia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 49 away

1.13

creates per match

1.29

1.88

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Ordino

1.13

UE Sant Julia

1.29

allows per match

Ordino

1.88

UE Sant Julia

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ordino+0.00on par

UE Sant Julia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ordino ↓

UE Sant Julia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ordino or draw

59%

Ordino or UE Sant Julia

76%

Draw or UE Sant Julia

65%

Winning margin

Ordino wins by 2+

16%

UE Sant Julia wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ordino 1+ goals

76%

Ordino 2+ goals

42%

Ordino 3+ goals

18%

UE Sant Julia 1+ goals

79%

UE Sant Julia 2+ goals

47%

UE Sant Julia 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Ordino (draw refunded)

46%

UE Sant Julia (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ordino at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 77 matches

UE Sant Julia away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.76 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ordino attack 1.13 + UE Sant Julia defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

UE Sant Julia attack 1.29 + Ordino defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ordino scores more

35%

level

24%

UE Sant Julia scores more

41%

UE Sant Julia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UE Sant Julia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff