Ordino 1–1 FC Santa Coloma: Result & Stats

Ordino

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Santa Coloma

1/27/2024

1a Divisió · Round 14Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Ordino19%

×Draw22%

FC Santa Coloma59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrdinoExpected goals in this matchFC Santa Coloma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.90

Ordino

0.97

FC Santa Coloma

1.90

FC Santa Coloma creates 96% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 88 away

1.13

creates per match

1.93

1.88

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Ordino

1.13

FC Santa Coloma

1.93

allows per match

Ordino

1.88

FC Santa Coloma

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ordino+0.00on par

FC Santa Coloma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ordino ↓

FC Santa Coloma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ordino or draw

41%

Ordino or FC Santa Coloma

78%

Draw or FC Santa Coloma

81%

Winning margin

Ordino wins by 2+

6%

FC Santa Coloma wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Ordino 1+ goals

62%

Ordino 2+ goals

25%

Ordino 3+ goals

7%

FC Santa Coloma 1+ goals

85%

FC Santa Coloma 2+ goals

56%

FC Santa Coloma 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Ordino (draw refunded)

24%

FC Santa Coloma (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ordino at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 77 matches

FC Santa Coloma away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.82 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ordino attack 1.13 + FC Santa Coloma defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

FC Santa Coloma attack 1.93 + Ordino defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ordino scores more

19%

level

22%

FC Santa Coloma scores more

59%

FC Santa Coloma at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC Santa Coloma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff