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Ordino vs Esperança d'Andorra — 1a Divisió 2019

Ordino
Ordino
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Esperança d'Andorra
Esperança d'Andorra
10/28/20231a Divisió1a Divisió · Round 6Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ordino51%
×Draw22%
Esperança d'Andorra28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ordino
2.03
Esperança d'Andorra
1.45

Ordino creates 40% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 41 away

creates per match

Ordino
1.13
Esperança d'Andorra
1.02

allows per match

Ordino
1.88
Esperança d'Andorra
2.93

finishing

Ordino+0.00on par
Esperança d'Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ordino ↓

Esperança d'Andorra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ordino or draw
72%
Ordino or Esperança d'Andorra
78%
Draw or Esperança d'Andorra
49%

Winning margin

Ordino wins by 2+
29%
Esperança d'Andorra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ordino 1+ goals
87%
Ordino 2+ goals
60%
Ordino 3+ goals
33%
Esperança d'Andorra 1+ goals
77%
Esperança d'Andorra 2+ goals
42%
Esperança d'Andorra 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ordino (draw refunded)
65%
Esperança d'Andorra (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ordino at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 77 matches

Esperança d'Andorra away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ordino attack 1.13 + Esperança d'Andorra defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.03

Esperança d'Andorra attack 1.02 + Ordino defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ordino scores more
51%
level
22%
Esperança d'Andorra scores more
28%

Ordino at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ordino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ordino vs Esperança d'Andorra

Ordino beat Esperança d'Andorra 4-0 in 1a Divisió on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.