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Orašje vs Travnik — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Orašje
Orašje
FT
1 – 3
Travnik
Travnik
8/31/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 4Novi Stadion Orašje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Orašje54%
×Draw24%
Travnik22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orašje
1.75
Travnik
1.03

Orašje creates 70% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 80 away

creates per match

Orašje
1.78
Travnik
0.91

allows per match

Orašje
1.16
Travnik
1.71

finishing

Orašje+0.00on par
Travnik+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orašje ↓

Travnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Orašje or draw
78%
Orašje or Travnik
76%
Draw or Travnik
46%

Winning margin

Orašje wins by 2+
30%
Travnik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Orašje 1+ goals
83%
Orašje 2+ goals
52%
Orašje 3+ goals
25%
Travnik 1+ goals
64%
Travnik 2+ goals
28%
Travnik 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Orašje (draw refunded)
71%
Travnik (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orašje at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Travnik away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.71 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orašje attack 1.78 + Travnik defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Travnik attack 0.91 + Orašje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Orašje scores more
54%
level
24%
Travnik scores more
22%

Orašje at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Orašje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Orašje 1–3 Travnik

Travnik beat Orašje 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Novi Stadion Orašje in Orašje.