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Orange County SC vs Tulsa Roughnecks — USL Championship 2018

Orange County SC
Orange County SC
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
6/24/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 26Champions Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park (Irvine, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Orange County SC51%
×Draw24%
Tulsa Roughnecks25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orange County SC
1.71
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.13

Orange County SC creates 51% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 130 away

creates per match

Orange County SC
1.60
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.19

allows per match

Orange County SC
1.07
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.81

finishing

Orange County SC+0.00on par
Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orange County SC ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Orange County SC or draw
75%
Orange County SC or Tulsa Roughnecks
76%
Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks
49%

Winning margin

Orange County SC wins by 2+
27%
Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Orange County SC 1+ goals
82%
Orange County SC 2+ goals
51%
Orange County SC 3+ goals
24%
Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
68%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
31%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Orange County SC (draw refunded)
67%
Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orange County SC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.07 · 136 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orange County SC attack 1.60 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Orange County SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Orange County SC scores more
51%
level
24%
Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
25%

Orange County SC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Orange County SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orange County SC vs Tulsa Roughnecks

Orange County SC beat Tulsa Roughnecks 6-1 in USL Championship on June 24, 2018.

The match was played at Champions Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park (Irvine, California).