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Optik Rathenow vs Makkabi — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Optik Rathenow
Optik Rathenow
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Makkabi
Makkabi
11/25/2023Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 14Stadion Vogelgesang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Optik Rathenow37%
×Draw24%
Makkabi39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Optik Rathenow
1.56
Makkabi
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 62 away

creates per match

Optik Rathenow
1.61
Makkabi
1.65

allows per match

Optik Rathenow
1.59
Makkabi
1.52

finishing

Optik Rathenow+0.00on par
Makkabi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Optik Rathenow ↓

Makkabi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Optik Rathenow or draw
61%
Optik Rathenow or Makkabi
76%
Draw or Makkabi
63%

Winning margin

Optik Rathenow wins by 2+
18%
Makkabi wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Optik Rathenow 1+ goals
79%
Optik Rathenow 2+ goals
46%
Optik Rathenow 3+ goals
21%
Makkabi 1+ goals
80%
Makkabi 2+ goals
48%
Makkabi 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)
48%
Makkabi (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Optik Rathenow at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Makkabi away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Optik Rathenow attack 1.61 + Makkabi defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Makkabi attack 1.65 + Optik Rathenow defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Optik Rathenow scores more
37%
level
24%
Makkabi scores more
39%

Makkabi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Makkabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Optik Rathenow 1–4 Makkabi

Makkabi beat Optik Rathenow 4-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vogelgesang in Rathenow.