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Opava vs Prostějov — FNL 2019

Opava
Opava
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Prostějov
Prostějov
11/4/2023FNLFNL · Round 15Stadion v Městských sadech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Opava54%
×Draw24%
Prostějov22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava
1.74
Prostějov
1.02

Opava creates 71% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 103 away

creates per match

Opava
1.65
Prostějov
1.02

allows per match

Opava
1.03
Prostějov
1.83

finishing

Opava+0.00on par
Prostějov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava ↓

Prostějov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Opava or draw
78%
Opava or Prostějov
76%
Draw or Prostějov
46%

Winning margin

Opava wins by 2+
30%
Prostějov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Opava 1+ goals
82%
Opava 2+ goals
52%
Opava 3+ goals
25%
Prostějov 1+ goals
64%
Prostějov 2+ goals
27%
Prostějov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Opava (draw refunded)
71%
Prostějov (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Prostějov away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.83 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava attack 1.65 + Prostějov defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.74

Prostějov attack 1.02 + Opava defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Opava scores more
54%
level
24%
Prostějov scores more
22%

Opava at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Opava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Opava vs Prostějov

Prostějov beat Opava 2-1 in FNL on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion v Městských sadech in Opava.