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Opava II vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Opava II
Opava II
CANC
13:30
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
4/4/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 14Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Opava II63%
×Draw18%
Beskyd Frenštát18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava II
2.52
Beskyd Frenštát
1.30

Opava II creates 94% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 60 away

creates per match

Opava II
2.67
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Opava II
1.38
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Opava II+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava II ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Opava II or draw
82%
Opava II or Beskyd Frenštát
82%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
37%

Winning margin

Opava II wins by 2+
42%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Opava II 1+ goals
92%
Opava II 2+ goals
71%
Opava II 3+ goals
45%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
73%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
37%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Opava II (draw refunded)
78%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.38 · 76 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava II attack 2.67 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.52

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Opava II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Opava II scores more
63%
level
18%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
18%

Opava II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Opava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Opava II face Beskyd Frenštát (4. liga - Divizie F)

4. liga - Divizie F returns with Opava II hosting Beskyd Frenštát. Match starts April 4, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Opava II host Beskyd Frenštát at Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.