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Oostende vs Gent — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Oostende
Oostende
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gent
Gent
F. Sakala 73' (pen)
M. Gueye 61'
O. Bukari 5'
12/6/2020Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 15Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Oostende31%
×Draw24%
Gent44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oostende
1.34
Gent
1.64

Gent creates 22% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 157 away

creates per match

Oostende
1.34
Gent
1.50

allows per match

Oostende
1.78
Gent
1.34

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par
Gent+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

Gent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Oostende or draw
56%
Oostende or Gent
76%
Draw or Gent
69%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+
14%
Gent wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals
74%
Oostende 2+ goals
39%
Oostende 3+ goals
15%
Gent 1+ goals
81%
Gent 2+ goals
49%
Gent 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)
41%
Gent (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.78 · 83 matches

Gent away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.34 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.34 + Gent defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.34

Gent attack 1.50 + Oostende defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oostende scores more
31%
level
24%
Gent scores more
44%

Gent at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
O. Bukari↳ R. Yaremchuk
45'
Ari Freyr Skúlason
59'
Makhtar Gueye
61'
M. Gueye↳ K. Vandendriessche
65'
L. Depoitre← J. Botaka
67'
Osman Bukari
73'
F. SakalaPenalty
76'
S. Guri← F. Sakala
82'
R. Bezus← E. Owusu
84'
F. Marquet← A. Hjulsager
89'
Núrio Fortuna
90'
Michael Ngadeu
90'
Roman Bezus

Statistics

OostendeGent
Overview
3Corners6
Discipline
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0

Oostende 2 – 1 Gent

Oostende beat Gent 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on December 6, 2020.

Goals: O. Bukari (5'), M. Gueye (61'), F. Sakala (73' pen).

The match was played at Diaz Arena in Oostende.