Onsala 2–0 Lindome: Result & Stats | Svenska Cupen

Onsala

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lindome

6/30/2021

Svenska Cupen · 1st RoundRydets IP konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Onsala55%

×Draw20%

Lindome25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OnsalaExpected goals in this matchLindome

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.60

Onsala

2.40

Lindome

1.60

Onsala creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.80

creates per match

1.00

2.20

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Onsala

1.80

Lindome

1.00

allows per match

Onsala

2.20

Lindome

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Onsala+0.00on par

Lindome+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onsala ↓

Lindome →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Onsala or draw

75%

Onsala or Lindome

80%

Draw or Lindome

45%

Winning margin

Onsala wins by 2+

34%

Lindome wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Onsala 1+ goals

91%

Onsala 2+ goals

69%

Onsala 3+ goals

42%

Lindome 1+ goals

80%

Lindome 2+ goals

47%

Lindome 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Onsala (draw refunded)

68%

Lindome (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onsala at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Lindome away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onsala attack 1.80 + Lindome defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.40

Lindome attack 1.00 + Onsala defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Onsala scores more

55%

level

20%

Lindome scores more

25%

Onsala at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Onsala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff