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Once Municipal vs Isidro Metapán — Primera Division 2019

Once Municipal
Once Municipal
CANC
21:00
Isidro Metapán
Isidro Metapán
5/21/2023Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Arturo Simeón Magaña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Once Municipal39%
×Draw29%
Isidro Metapán32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Municipal
1.19
Isidro Metapán
1.06

Once Municipal creates 12% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 147 away

creates per match

Once Municipal
1.14
Isidro Metapán
1.07

allows per match

Once Municipal
1.05
Isidro Metapán
1.25

finishing

Once Municipal+0.00on par
Isidro Metapán+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Municipal ↓

Isidro Metapán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Once Municipal or draw
68%
Once Municipal or Isidro Metapán
71%
Draw or Isidro Metapán
61%

Winning margin

Once Municipal wins by 2+
17%
Isidro Metapán wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Once Municipal 1+ goals
70%
Once Municipal 2+ goals
33%
Once Municipal 3+ goals
12%
Isidro Metapán 1+ goals
65%
Isidro Metapán 2+ goals
29%
Isidro Metapán 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Once Municipal (draw refunded)
55%
Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Municipal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.05 · 118 matches

Isidro Metapán away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Municipal attack 1.14 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Isidro Metapán attack 1.07 + Once Municipal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Once Municipal scores more
39%
level
29%
Isidro Metapán scores more
32%

Once Municipal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Once Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Once Municipal host Isidro Metapán

May 21, 2023: Once Municipal take on Isidro Metapán in Primera Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Once Municipal host Isidro Metapán at Estadio Arturo Simeón Magaña.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.