Once Caldas 0–1 Jaguares: Result & Stats

Once Caldas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jaguares

J. Viveros 38' (pen)

10/1/2022

Primera A · Clausura - 15Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Once Caldas44%

×Draw28%

Jaguares28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once CaldasExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.97

Once Caldas

1.28

Jaguares

0.97

Once Caldas creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

1.20

creates per match

0.68

1.25

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Once Caldas

1.20

Jaguares

0.68

allows per match

Once Caldas

1.25

Jaguares

1.36

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Once Caldas+0.57scores more

Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw

72%

Once Caldas or Jaguares

72%

Draw or Jaguares

56%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+

20%

Jaguares wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals

72%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

37%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

14%

Jaguares 1+ goals

62%

Jaguares 2+ goals

25%

Jaguares 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

61%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.20 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Jaguares attack 0.68 + Once Caldas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Once Caldas scores more

44%

level

28%

Jaguares scores more

28%

Once Caldas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Soto

Jaguares · G

8.2

Match Events

35'

Duvan RodríguezPenalty awarded

38'

J. ViverosPenalty

45+1'

Juan Rodríguez

46'

M. Piedrahita← J. Cardona

60'

N. Tapia← J. Castellanos

61'

J. Méndez← L. Pico

61'

D. Quiñonez← D. Valdes

61'

H. Castillo← J. Quintero

71'

C. Copete← J. Viveros

72'

G. Celis← J. Rodríguez

80'

81'

83'

90+6'

90+5'

90+5'

90+1'

D. Viáfara← E. Villalobos

90+1'

K. Padilla← D. Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OnceJaguares

Overview

65%Possession35%

23Total Shots7

10Corners4

13Fouls13

Shots

23Total Shots7

6On Target4

9Off Target2

8Blocked1

13Inside Box4

10Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

410Total Passes230

335Accurate Passes150

82%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls13

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Primera A: Once Caldas 0–1 Jaguares

Jaguares beat Once Caldas 1-0 in Primera A on October 1, 2022.

Goals: J. Viveros (38' pen).

Once Caldas controlled possession (65%) and registered 23 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.

Once Caldas vs Jaguares — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Once Caldas 0–1 Jaguares