Once Caldas 1–2 Jaguares: Result & Stats

Once Caldas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Jaguares

F. Mosquera 24' (OG)

R. Lemus 82'

P. Bueno 78'

4/6/2021

Primera A · Apertura - 17Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Once Caldas44%

×Draw28%

Jaguares28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once CaldasExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.97

Once Caldas

1.28

Jaguares

0.97

Once Caldas creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

1.20

creates per match

0.68

1.25

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Once Caldas

1.20

Jaguares

0.68

allows per match

Once Caldas

1.25

Jaguares

1.36

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Once Caldas+0.57scores more

Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw

72%

Once Caldas or Jaguares

72%

Draw or Jaguares

56%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+

20%

Jaguares wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals

72%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

37%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

14%

Jaguares 1+ goals

62%

Jaguares 2+ goals

25%

Jaguares 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

61%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.20 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Jaguares attack 0.68 + Once Caldas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Once Caldas scores more

44%

level

28%

Jaguares scores more

28%

Once Caldas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

W. Guisao

Jaguares · M

7.5

Match Events

24'

F. MosqueraOwn goal

26'

E. Laszo← H. Otálvaro

46'

P. Bueno← J. Barragán

46'

R. Lemus← Y. Anchico

64'

I. Scarpeta← E. Sosa

64'

J. Lloreda← J. Pérez

75'

R. Mejía← M. Carreazo

75'

78'

82'

83'

84'

84'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OnceJaguares

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots8

4Corners4

12Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots8

1On Target2

14Off Target4

2Blocked2

3Inside Box3

14Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

450Total Passes304

369Accurate Passes223

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Once Caldas vs Jaguares

Jaguares beat Once Caldas 2-1 in Primera A on April 6, 2021.

Goals: F. Mosquera (24' o.g.), P. Bueno (78'), R. Lemus (82').

Once Caldas controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.

Once Caldas vs Jaguares — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Once Caldas vs Jaguares