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Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera A 2018

Once Caldas
Once Caldas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
2/23/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 8Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Once Caldas48%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Pereira25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas
1.39
Deportivo Pereira
0.91

Once Caldas creates 53% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 131 away

creates per match

Once Caldas
1.35
Deportivo Pereira
0.93

allows per match

Once Caldas
0.88
Deportivo Pereira
1.43

finishing

Once Caldas+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Deportivo Pereira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw
75%
Once Caldas or Deportivo Pereira
73%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira
52%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+
23%
Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals
75%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
40%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
16%
Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
60%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)
66%
Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.88 · 171 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.43 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.35 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.93 + Once Caldas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Once Caldas scores more
48%
level
27%
Deportivo Pereira scores more
25%

Once Caldas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira

Deportivo Pereira beat Once Caldas 2-1 in Primera A on February 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.