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Once Caldas vs America de Cali — Primera A 2018

Once Caldas
Once Caldas
Preview
01:30
America de Cali
America de Cali
8/6/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 3Estadio Palogrande
Big match
45%
Once Caldas
model favours
45%28%27%

Once Caldas score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 171+ matches

Once Caldas45%
×Draw28%
America de Cali27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas
1.31
America de Cali
0.96

Once Caldas creates 36% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 190 away

creates per match

Once Caldas
1.35
America de Cali
1.04

allows per match

Once Caldas
0.88
America de Cali
1.26

finishing

Once Caldas+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw
73%
Once Caldas or America de Cali
72%
Draw or America de Cali
55%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+
21%
America de Cali wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals
73%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
38%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
14%
America de Cali 1+ goals
62%
America de Cali 2+ goals
25%
America de Cali 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)
62%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.88 · 171 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 190 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.35 + America de Cali defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

America de Cali attack 1.04 + Once Caldas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Once Caldas scores more
45%
level
28%
America de Cali scores more
27%

Once Caldas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • America de Cali score first in only 27% of matches
  • 73% of America de Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Once Caldas sit 14, America de Cali 3 in the table
  • America de Cali outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Once Caldas
Balanced
America de Cali
Defensively solid
53%Possession52%
82%Pass accuracy80%
13.2Shots13.9
1.07xGBiggest gap1.19
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Once CaldasAmerica de Cali

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Once Caldas
6
Draws
2
America de Cali
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 50%
1–11–11–23–03–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Caldas
DLWDW
Cali
LWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Once Caldas host America de Cali

August 6, 2026: Once Caldas take on America de Cali in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Once Caldas host America de Cali at Estadio Palogrande.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.