Once Caldas 0–0 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Once Caldas

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

America de Cali

4/28/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 19Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Once Caldas41%

×Draw29%

America de Cali31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once CaldasExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.02

Once Caldas

1.22

America de Cali

1.02

Once Caldas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.20

creates per match

0.79

1.25

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Once Caldas

1.20

America de Cali

0.79

allows per match

Once Caldas

1.25

America de Cali

1.24

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Once Caldas+0.57scores more

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw

69%

Once Caldas or America de Cali

71%

Draw or America de Cali

59%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+

18%

America de Cali wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals

70%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

34%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

12%

America de Cali 1+ goals

64%

America de Cali 2+ goals

27%

America de Cali 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

57%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.20 + America de Cali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

America de Cali attack 0.79 + Once Caldas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Once Caldas scores more

41%

level

29%

America de Cali scores more

31%

Once Caldas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. García

Once Caldas · M

7.5

Match Events

42'

John Araujo

70'

L. Paz← E. López

71'

S. Mera← J. Araujo

71'

Ó. Hernández← N. Castrillón

80'

A. Ramos← C. Barrios

81'

Y. Garcés← R. Holgado

85'

A. García← B. Arce

88'

M. Barrios← E. Valencia

90+2'

L. Palacios← G. Torres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OnceAmerica

Overview

38%Possession62%

9Total Shots9

3Corners4

11Fouls4

Shots

9Total Shots9

2On Target2

4Off Target4

3Blocked3

2Inside Box4

7Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

272Total Passes476

204Accurate Passes412

75%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls4

1Yellow Cards0

5Offsides2