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Once Caldas vs America de Cali — Primera A 2018

Once Caldas
Once Caldas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
America de Cali
America de Cali
D. Lemos 46'
E. Cardona 77'
10/26/2023Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 19Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Once Caldas41%
×Draw29%
America de Cali31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas
1.22
America de Cali
1.02

Once Caldas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Once Caldas
1.20
America de Cali
0.79

allows per match

Once Caldas
1.25
America de Cali
1.24

finishing

Once Caldas+0.57scores more
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw
69%
Once Caldas or America de Cali
71%
Draw or America de Cali
59%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+
18%
America de Cali wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals
70%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
34%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
12%
America de Cali 1+ goals
64%
America de Cali 2+ goals
27%
America de Cali 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)
57%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.20 + America de Cali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

America de Cali attack 0.79 + Once Caldas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Once Caldas scores more
41%
level
29%
America de Cali scores more
31%

Once Caldas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88
E. CardonaAmerica de CaliAmerica de Cali · M
7.6

Match Events

25'
Andrés SarmientoPenalty confirmed
37'
J. Escobar← J. García
45+3'
Juan David Cuesta
46'
C. Barrios← C. Arrieta
46'
D. Lemos↳ D. Moreno
75'
J. Mejia← D. Lemos
75'
B. Correa← E. Mena
76'
Johar Mejía
77'
E. Cardona↳ A. Sarmiento
81'
Johan Esteban Beltran Montaño
82'
Edwin Cardona
85'
J. Orobio← S. Mera
89'
J. Velasco← E. Beltrán
89'
D. Contreras← B. Correa
90+4'
Edwin Velasco

Possession

37%Once

Shots

10Once

Pass accuracy

42%Once

Statistics

OnceAmerica
Overview
37%Possession63%
10Total Shots16
4Corners9
11Fouls7
Shots
10Total Shots16
2On Target5
4Off Target8
4Blocked3
7Inside Box7
3Outside Box9
Passing
37%Possession63%
198Total Passes342
110Accurate Passes266
56%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls7
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Primera A: Once Caldas 1–1 America de Cali

Once Caldas and America de Cali drew 1-1 in Primera A on October 26, 2023.

Goals: D. Lemos (46'), E. Cardona (77').

America de Cali controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.