Once Caldas 2–1 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Once Caldas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

America de Cali

D. Rodríguez 77'

D. Lemos 43'

C. Sierra 66'

8/31/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 9Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Once Caldas42%

×Draw28%

America de Cali30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once CaldasExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.02

Once Caldas

1.25

America de Cali

1.02

Once Caldas creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

1.20

creates per match

0.78

1.25

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Once Caldas

1.20

America de Cali

0.78

allows per match

Once Caldas

1.25

America de Cali

1.30

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Once Caldas+0.57scores more

America de Cali-0.03on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw

70%

Once Caldas or America de Cali

72%

Draw or America de Cali

58%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+

18%

America de Cali wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals

71%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

36%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

13%

America de Cali 1+ goals

64%

America de Cali 2+ goals

27%

America de Cali 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

58%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.20 + America de Cali defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

America de Cali attack 0.78 + Once Caldas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Once Caldas scores more

42%

level

28%

America de Cali scores more

30%

Once Caldas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

A. Estacio

Once Caldas · M

7.5

Match Events

43'

D. Lemos↳ A. Estacio

50'

D. Rodríguez← D. Lemos

53'

54'

61'

63'

66'

C. Sierra↳ Y. Cabrera

73'

M. Nazarit← D. Peralta

77'

D. Rodríguez

79'

C. Álvarez← J. Viveros

80'

P. Franco← J. Segovia

87'

88'

88'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OnceAmerica

Overview

47%Possession53%

16Total Shots16

0Corners3

10Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots16

9On Target2

6Off Target10

1Blocked4

11Inside Box7

5Outside Box9

Passing

47%Possession53%

381Total Passes430

308Accurate Passes359

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3