Once Caldas 2–1 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Once Caldas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

America de Cali

M. García 88'

K. Londoño 18'

D. Vergara 19'

8/1/2019

Copa Colombia · 8th Finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Once Caldas51%

×Draw26%

America de Cali24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once CaldasExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.97

Once Caldas

1.55

America de Cali

0.97

Once Caldas creates 60% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

1.92

creates per match

0.94

1.00

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Once Caldas

1.92

America de Cali

0.94

allows per match

Once Caldas

1.00

America de Cali

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Once Caldas+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw

76%

Once Caldas or America de Cali

74%

Draw or America de Cali

49%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+

26%

America de Cali wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals

79%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

46%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

20%

America de Cali 1+ goals

62%

America de Cali 2+ goals

25%

America de Cali 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

68%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.92 + America de Cali defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.55

America de Cali attack 0.94 + Once Caldas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Once Caldas scores more

51%

level

26%

America de Cali scores more

24%

Once Caldas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

K. Londoño

19'

D. Vergara

42'

M. Carreazo← J. Reina

58'

H. Quiñónes← C. Álvarez

58'

Y. Cabrera← D. Vergara

79'

D. Lemos← J. Carbonero

85'

K. Andrade← M. Pisano

88'

M. García

90'

H. Suárez← M. Carreazo

Once

America

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: H. Bodhert

42'▲M. Carreazo←▼J. Reina

79'▲D. Lemos←▼J. Carbonero

90'▲H. Suárez←▼M. Carreazo

Once Caldas substitutes

CarreazoLemosSuárezSerjeNazaritRománClavijo

Manager: A. Guimarães

58'▲H. Quiñónes←▼C. Álvarez

58'▲Y. Cabrera←▼D. Vergara

85'▲K. Andrade←▼M. Pisano

America de Cali substitutes

QuiñónesCabreraAndradeMedinaNievaTorresVolpi

Copa Colombia: Once Caldas 2–1 America de Cali

Once Caldas beat America de Cali 2-1 in Copa Colombia on August 1, 2019.

Goals: K. Londoño (18'), D. Vergara (19'), M. García (88').

Once Caldas vs America de Cali — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Colombia: Once Caldas 2–1 America de Cali