Omonia Nicosia 2–0 Apollon Limassol: Result & Stats

Omonia Nicosia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Apollon Limassol

11/4/2023

1. Division · Round 10Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Omonia Nicosia46%

×Draw27%

Apollon Limassol27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omonia NicosiaExpected goals in this matchApollon Limassol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.03

Omonia Nicosia

1.44

Apollon Limassol

1.03

Omonia Nicosia creates 40% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 119 away

1.79

creates per match

1.38

0.69

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Omonia Nicosia

1.79

Apollon Limassol

1.38

allows per match

Omonia Nicosia

0.69

Apollon Limassol

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Apollon Limassol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Nicosia ↓

Apollon Limassol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Omonia Nicosia or draw

73%

Omonia Nicosia or Apollon Limassol

73%

Draw or Apollon Limassol

54%

Winning margin

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+

23%

Apollon Limassol wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals

76%

Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals

42%

Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals

18%

Apollon Limassol 1+ goals

64%

Apollon Limassol 2+ goals

28%

Apollon Limassol 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)

63%

Apollon Limassol (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Nicosia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.69 · 117 matches

Apollon Limassol away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.08 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.79 + Apollon Limassol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.44

Apollon Limassol attack 1.38 + Omonia Nicosia defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Omonia Nicosia scores more

46%

level

27%

Apollon Limassol scores more

27%

Omonia Nicosia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff