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Omiya Ardija vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

Omiya Ardija
Omiya Ardija
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
7/27/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 24NACK5 Stadium Ōmiya (Saitama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Omiya Ardija45%
×Draw26%
Renofa Yamaguchi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omiya Ardija
1.45
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.12

Omiya Ardija creates 29% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 168 away

creates per match

Omiya Ardija
1.40
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

Omiya Ardija
1.26
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

Omiya Ardija+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiya Ardija ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Omiya Ardija or draw
71%
Omiya Ardija or Renofa Yamaguchi
74%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
55%

Winning margin

Omiya Ardija wins by 2+
22%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Omiya Ardija 1+ goals
77%
Omiya Ardija 2+ goals
42%
Omiya Ardija 3+ goals
18%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
67%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
31%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Omiya Ardija (draw refunded)
60%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiya Ardija at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 147 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiya Ardija attack 1.40 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Omiya Ardija defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Omiya Ardija scores more
45%
level
26%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
29%

Omiya Ardija at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Omiya Ardija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Omiya Ardija 1–0 Renofa Yamaguchi

Omiya Ardija beat Renofa Yamaguchi 1-0 in J2 League on July 27, 2019.

The match was played at NACK5 Stadium Ōmiya (Saitama).