Omiya Ardija 1–0 Kanazawa: Result & Stats

Omiya Ardija

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kanazawa

11/15/2020

J2 League · Round 34NACK5 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Omiya Ardija42%

×Draw26%

Kanazawa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omiya ArdijaExpected goals in this matchKanazawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.25

Omiya Ardija

1.47

Kanazawa

1.25

Omiya Ardija creates 18% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 126 away

1.40

creates per match

1.25

1.26

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Omiya Ardija

1.40

Kanazawa

1.25

allows per match

Omiya Ardija

1.26

Kanazawa

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omiya Ardija+0.00on par

Kanazawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiya Ardija ↓

Kanazawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Omiya Ardija or draw

68%

Omiya Ardija or Kanazawa

74%

Draw or Kanazawa

58%

Winning margin

Omiya Ardija wins by 2+

20%

Kanazawa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Omiya Ardija 1+ goals

77%

Omiya Ardija 2+ goals

43%

Omiya Ardija 3+ goals

18%

Kanazawa 1+ goals

71%

Kanazawa 2+ goals

36%

Kanazawa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Omiya Ardija (draw refunded)

57%

Kanazawa (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiya Ardija at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 147 matches

Kanazawa away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.54 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiya Ardija attack 1.40 + Kanazawa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kanazawa attack 1.25 + Omiya Ardija defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Omiya Ardija scores more

42%

level

26%

Kanazawa scores more

32%

Omiya Ardija at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Omiya Ardija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff