Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Omiš vs Zagora — Third NL - Jug 2019

Omiš
Omiš
FT
1 – 5
Zagora
Zagora
11/11/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 13Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Omiš45%
×Draw25%
Zagora31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omiš
1.60
Zagora
1.29

Omiš creates 24% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 102 away

creates per match

Omiš
1.64
Zagora
1.47

allows per match

Omiš
1.11
Zagora
1.57

finishing

Omiš+0.00on par
Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiš ↓

Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Omiš or draw
69%
Omiš or Zagora
75%
Draw or Zagora
55%

Winning margin

Omiš wins by 2+
23%
Zagora wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Omiš 1+ goals
80%
Omiš 2+ goals
47%
Omiš 3+ goals
22%
Zagora 1+ goals
72%
Zagora 2+ goals
37%
Zagora 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Omiš (draw refunded)
59%
Zagora (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiš at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

Zagora away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiš attack 1.64 + Zagora defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Zagora attack 1.47 + Omiš defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Omiš scores more
45%
level
25%
Zagora scores more
31%

Omiš at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Omiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Omiš 1 – 5 Zagora

Zagora beat Omiš 5-1 in Third NL - Jug on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Anđelko Marušić - Ferata in Omiš.