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Olympique Safi vs Wydad AC — Botola Pro 2025

Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
12/29/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 13Stade El Massira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Olympique Safi32%
×Draw29%
Wydad AC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Safi
1.02
Wydad AC
1.14

Wydad AC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Olympique Safi
1.08
Wydad AC
1.32

allows per match

Olympique Safi
0.95
Wydad AC
0.96

finishing

Olympique Safi+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Safi ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Olympique Safi or draw
62%
Olympique Safi or Wydad AC
71%
Draw or Wydad AC
68%

Winning margin

Olympique Safi wins by 2+
12%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Olympique Safi 1+ goals
64%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
27%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
8%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
68%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
32%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
46%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Safi at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 120 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Safi attack 1.08 + Wydad AC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Wydad AC attack 1.32 + Olympique Safi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Olympique Safi scores more
32%
level
29%
Wydad AC scores more
38%

Wydad AC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Olympique Safi 2–1 Wydad AC

Olympique Safi beat Wydad AC 2-1 in Botola Pro on December 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stade El Massira in Safi.