Olympique Safi 2–1 Wydad AC: Result & Stats

Olympique Safi

FT

2 – 1

Wydad AC

9/7/2018

Botola Pro · Round 1Stade El Massira (Safi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Olympique Safi33%

×Draw30%

Wydad AC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique SafiExpected goals in this matchWydad AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.10

Olympique Safi

1.02

Wydad AC

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 114 away

1.09

creates per match

1.27

0.94

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Olympique Safi

1.09

Wydad AC

1.27

allows per match

Olympique Safi

0.94

Wydad AC

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Safi ↓

Wydad AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Olympique Safi or draw

63%

Olympique Safi or Wydad AC

70%

Draw or Wydad AC

67%

Winning margin

Olympique Safi wins by 2+

13%

Wydad AC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Olympique Safi 1+ goals

64%

Olympique Safi 2+ goals

27%

Olympique Safi 3+ goals

8%

Wydad AC 1+ goals

67%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

30%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Olympique Safi (draw refunded)

47%

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Safi at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.94 · 117 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.94 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Safi attack 1.09 + Wydad AC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Wydad AC attack 1.27 + Olympique Safi defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Olympique Safi scores more

33%

level

30%

Wydad AC scores more

37%

Wydad AC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff