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Olympique Medea vs MC Alger — Ligue 1 2018

Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
MC Alger
MC Alger
9/11/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade Imam Lyes (Médéa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Olympique Medea36%
×Draw31%
MC Alger33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Medea
1.04
MC Alger
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 124 away

creates per match

Olympique Medea
1.14
MC Alger
0.92

allows per match

Olympique Medea
1.04
MC Alger
0.94

finishing

Olympique Medea+0.00on par
MC Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Medea ↓

MC Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Olympique Medea or draw
67%
Olympique Medea or MC Alger
69%
Draw or MC Alger
64%

Winning margin

Olympique Medea wins by 2+
14%
MC Alger wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Olympique Medea 1+ goals
65%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
28%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
9%
MC Alger 1+ goals
62%
MC Alger 2+ goals
26%
MC Alger 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
52%
MC Alger (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Medea at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

MC Alger away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.94 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Medea attack 1.14 + MC Alger defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

MC Alger attack 0.92 + Olympique Medea defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Olympique Medea scores more
36%
level
31%
MC Alger scores more
33%

Olympique Medea at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Olympique Medea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Medea vs MC Alger

MC Alger beat Olympique Medea 2-1 in Ligue 1 on September 11, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Imam Lyes (Médéa).