Olympique de Genève vs Martigny Sports

Olympique de Genève

CANC

19:30

Martigny Sports

3/25/2020

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Olympique de Genève47%

×Draw23%

Martigny Sports30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique de GenèveExpected goals in this matchMartigny Sports

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.40

Olympique de Genève

1.80

Martigny Sports

1.40

Olympique de Genève creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 57 away

1.38

creates per match

1.26

1.54

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Olympique de Genève

1.38

Martigny Sports

1.26

allows per match

Olympique de Genève

1.54

Martigny Sports

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique de Genève+0.00on par

Martigny Sports+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique de Genève ↓

Martigny Sports →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Olympique de Genève or draw

70%

Olympique de Genève or Martigny Sports

77%

Draw or Martigny Sports

53%

Winning margin

Olympique de Genève wins by 2+

25%

Martigny Sports wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Olympique de Genève 1+ goals

83%

Olympique de Genève 2+ goals

54%

Olympique de Genève 3+ goals

27%

Martigny Sports 1+ goals

75%

Martigny Sports 2+ goals

41%

Martigny Sports 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Olympique de Genève (draw refunded)

61%

Martigny Sports (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique de Genève at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Martigny Sports away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.23 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique de Genève attack 1.38 + Martigny Sports defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.80

Martigny Sports attack 1.26 + Olympique de Genève defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Olympique de Genève scores more

47%

level

23%

Martigny Sports scores more

30%

Olympique de Genève at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Olympique de Genève will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff