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Olympic vs Trelleborg — Ettan - Södra 2019

Olympic
Olympic
Preview
11:00
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
10/4/2026Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 25
57%
Trelleborg
model favours
21%22%57%

Olympic have scored in 14 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Olympic21%
×Draw22%
Trelleborg57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic
1.06
Trelleborg
1.90

Trelleborg creates 79% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 7 away

creates per match

Olympic
1.55
Trelleborg
2.29

allows per match

Olympic
1.51
Trelleborg
0.57

finishing

Olympic+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Olympic or draw
43%
Olympic or Trelleborg
78%
Draw or Trelleborg
79%

Winning margin

Olympic wins by 2+
8%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Olympic 1+ goals
65%
Olympic 2+ goals
29%
Olympic 3+ goals
9%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
85%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
56%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Olympic (draw refunded)
27%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.51 · 67 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic attack 1.55 + Trelleborg defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.06

Trelleborg attack 2.29 + Olympic defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Olympic scores more
21%
level
22%
Trelleborg scores more
57%

Trelleborg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Olympic have won 3 in a row
  • Both teams score in 83% of Olympic’s matches
  • Trelleborg score first in only 27% of matches
  • 72% of Olympic’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Olympic score first in only 33% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Olympic
WWWDL
Trelleborg
DWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olympic face Trelleborg (Ettan - Södra)

Ettan - Södra returns with Olympic hosting Trelleborg. Match starts October 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.