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Olympic vs Skövde AIK — Ettan - Södra 2019

Olympic
Olympic
Preview
14:00
Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
8/1/2026Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 15
44%
Olympic
model favours
44%24%32%

Olympic have scored in 14 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Olympic44%
×Draw24%
Skövde AIK32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic
1.65
Skövde AIK
1.38

Olympic creates 20% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 68 away

creates per match

Olympic
1.55
Skövde AIK
1.25

allows per match

Olympic
1.51
Skövde AIK
1.74

finishing

Olympic+0.00on par
Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic ↓

Skövde AIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Olympic or draw
68%
Olympic or Skövde AIK
76%
Draw or Skövde AIK
56%

Winning margin

Olympic wins by 2+
23%
Skövde AIK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Olympic 1+ goals
81%
Olympic 2+ goals
49%
Olympic 3+ goals
23%
Skövde AIK 1+ goals
75%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
40%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Olympic (draw refunded)
58%
Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.51 · 67 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.74 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic attack 1.55 + Skövde AIK defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.65

Skövde AIK attack 1.25 + Olympic defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olympic scores more
44%
level
24%
Skövde AIK scores more
32%

Olympic at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Skövde AIK score first in only 24% of matches
  • Olympic have won 3 in a row
  • Both teams score in 83% of Olympic’s matches
  • Skövde AIK win just 9% of their away games
  • 72% of Olympic’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (72% and 65% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Olympic
WWWDL
AIK
LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olympic face Skövde AIK (Ettan - Södra)

Ettan - Södra returns with Olympic hosting Skövde AIK. Match starts August 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.