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Olympic vs Pakhtakor — Super League 2026

Olympic
Olympic
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
3/16/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Olympic22%
×Draw27%
Pakhtakor51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic
0.85
Pakhtakor
1.46

Pakhtakor creates 72% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 100 away

creates per match

Olympic
0.83
Pakhtakor
1.85

allows per match

Olympic
1.07
Pakhtakor
0.87

finishing

Olympic+0.00on par
Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic ↓

Pakhtakor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olympic or draw
49%
Olympic or Pakhtakor
73%
Draw or Pakhtakor
78%

Winning margin

Olympic wins by 2+
7%
Pakhtakor wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Olympic 1+ goals
57%
Olympic 2+ goals
21%
Olympic 3+ goals
5%
Pakhtakor 1+ goals
77%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
43%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Olympic (draw refunded)
30%
Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.87 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic attack 0.83 + Pakhtakor defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.85

Pakhtakor attack 1.85 + Olympic defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Olympic scores more
22%
level
27%
Pakhtakor scores more
51%

Pakhtakor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympic vs Pakhtakor

Olympic and Pakhtakor drew 1-1 in Super League on March 16, 2022.

The match was played at Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion in Tashkent.