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Olympic Azzaweya vs Al-Ittihad — Premier League 2019

Olympic Azzaweya
Olympic Azzaweya
FT
0 – 1
Al-Ittihad
Al-Ittihad
5/10/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Olympic Azzaweya36%
×Draw30%
Al-Ittihad34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic Azzaweya
1.04
Al-Ittihad
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 71 away

creates per match

Olympic Azzaweya
1.34
Al-Ittihad
1.18

allows per match

Olympic Azzaweya
0.85
Al-Ittihad
0.73

finishing

Olympic Azzaweya+0.00on par
Al-Ittihad+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic Azzaweya ↓

Al-Ittihad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Olympic Azzaweya or draw
66%
Olympic Azzaweya or Al-Ittihad
70%
Draw or Al-Ittihad
64%

Winning margin

Olympic Azzaweya wins by 2+
14%
Al-Ittihad wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Olympic Azzaweya 1+ goals
65%
Olympic Azzaweya 2+ goals
28%
Olympic Azzaweya 3+ goals
9%
Al-Ittihad 1+ goals
64%
Al-Ittihad 2+ goals
27%
Al-Ittihad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Olympic Azzaweya (draw refunded)
51%
Al-Ittihad (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic Azzaweya at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.85 · 65 matches

Al-Ittihad away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic Azzaweya attack 1.34 + Al-Ittihad defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al-Ittihad attack 1.18 + Olympic Azzaweya defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Olympic Azzaweya scores more
36%
level
30%
Al-Ittihad scores more
34%

Olympic Azzaweya at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Olympic Azzaweya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympic Azzaweya vs Al-Ittihad

Al-Ittihad beat Olympic Azzaweya 1-0 in Premier League on May 10, 2021.