Olympiakos 1–2 Anorthosis: Result & Stats

Olympiakos

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Anorthosis

J. Désiré 45'

C. Ninga 73', 56'

8/27/2022

1. Division · Round 1Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Olympiakos33%

×Draw29%

Anorthosis38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlympiakosExpected goals in this matchAnorthosis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.17

Olympiakos

1.06

Anorthosis

1.17

Anorthosis creates 10% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 115 away

0.97

creates per match

1.17

1.16

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Olympiakos

0.97

Anorthosis

1.17

allows per match

Olympiakos

1.16

Anorthosis

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympiakos+0.00on par

Anorthosis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos ↓

Anorthosis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Olympiakos or draw

62%

Olympiakos or Anorthosis

71%

Draw or Anorthosis

67%

Winning margin

Olympiakos wins by 2+

13%

Anorthosis wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Olympiakos 1+ goals

65%

Olympiakos 2+ goals

29%

Olympiakos 3+ goals

9%

Anorthosis 1+ goals

69%

Anorthosis 2+ goals

33%

Anorthosis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos (draw refunded)

46%

Anorthosis (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

Anorthosis away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.16 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos attack 0.97 + Anorthosis defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Anorthosis attack 1.17 + Olympiakos defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Olympiakos scores more

33%

level

29%

Anorthosis scores more

38%

Anorthosis at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Anorthosis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

37'

45'

54'

56'

66'

67'

A. Waris← Hélder Ferreira

73'

C. Ninga

79'

F. Duranski← F. Eftychidis

79'

M. Christodoulou← A. Kartashyan

79'

C. Kapartis← M. Pechlivanis

89'

M. Antoniou← A. Ebralidze

89'

E. Sabo← J. Puncheon

90'

Thomas Ioannou

Olympiakos3-4-3

Anorthosis4-2-3-1

29

⚽2

Ninga

94

Warda

11

▼

Ebralidze

13

▼

Ferreira

4

Artymatas

42

▼

7

44

2

19

1

1

3

▼

4

5

19

31

18

▼

Eftychidi

32

Kyriakou

7

Salli

9

⚽

Désiré

23

▼

Pechlivan

Manager: G. Petrakis

79'▲F. Duranski←▼F. Eftychidis

79'▲M. Christodoulou←▼A. Kartashyan

79'▲C. Kapartis←▼M. Pechlivanis

Olympiakos substitutes

6Duranski16Christodoulou20Kapartis2Liasides22Kováč12Pissias14Esselink15Puertas17Dosis24Dimitriou40Kaiafas33Antoniou

Manager: D. Milanič

67'▲A. Waris←▼Hélder Ferreira

89'▲M. Antoniou←▼A. Ebralidze

89'▲E. Sabo←▼J. Puncheon

Anorthosis substitutes

20Waris22Antoniou25Sabo3Antoniades17Paroutis23Kiko48Ioannou77Christofi88Chrysostomou91Papadopoulos99Keravnos