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OLS vs TPV — Ykkönen 2026

OLS
OLS
Preview
15:00
TPV
TPV
8/5/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageRaatin stadion
64%
OLS
model favours
64%18%18%

Both sides lean high-scoring (73% and 77% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

OLS64%
×Draw18%
TPV18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OLS
2.44
TPV
1.23

OLS creates 98% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 19 away

creates per match

OLS
2.51
TPV
1.16

allows per match

OLS
1.31
TPV
2.37

finishing

OLS+0.00on par
TPV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 71Under: 2971%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OLS ↓

TPV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

OLS or draw
82%
OLS or TPV
82%
Draw or TPV
36%

Winning margin

OLS wins by 2+
42%
TPV wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

OLS 1+ goals
91%
OLS 2+ goals
70%
OLS 3+ goals
43%
TPV 1+ goals
71%
TPV 2+ goals
35%
TPV 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

OLS (draw refunded)
78%
TPV (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OLS at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

TPV away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OLS attack 2.51 + TPV defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.44

TPV attack 1.16 + OLS defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

OLS scores more
64%
level
18%
TPV scores more
18%

OLS at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "OLS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 77% of TPV’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • TPV score first in only 31% of matches
  • 73% of OLS’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 73% of OLS’s matches
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
OLS
DLLDL
TPV
LWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OLS vs TPV — Match Preview

OLS face TPV on August 5, 2026 in this Ykkönen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

OLS host TPV at Raatin stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.