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OLS vs Rops — Ykkönen 2026

OLS
OLS
Preview
15:00
Rops
Rops
8/16/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageRaatin stadion
Big match
52%
OLS
model favours
52%21%27%

Rops are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

OLS52%
×Draw21%
Rops27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OLS
2.06
Rops
1.43

OLS creates 44% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 49 away

creates per match

OLS
2.51
Rops
1.55

allows per match

OLS
1.31
Rops
1.61

finishing

OLS+0.00on par
Rops+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OLS ↓

Rops →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

OLS or draw
73%
OLS or Rops
79%
Draw or Rops
48%

Winning margin

OLS wins by 2+
30%
Rops wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

OLS 1+ goals
87%
OLS 2+ goals
61%
OLS 3+ goals
34%
Rops 1+ goals
76%
Rops 2+ goals
42%
Rops 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

OLS (draw refunded)
66%
Rops (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OLS at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

Rops away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OLS attack 2.51 + Rops defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.06

Rops attack 1.55 + OLS defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

OLS scores more
52%
level
21%
Rops scores more
27%

OLS at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "OLS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of OLS’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 73% of OLS’s matches
  • 42% of Rops’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • OLS sit 11, Rops 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
OLS
DLLDL
Rops
WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OLS face Rops (Ykkönen)

Ykkönen returns with OLS hosting Rops. Match starts August 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

OLS host Rops at Raatin stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.